Wednesday, March 19, 2008

Sensex : No end to freefall in near future

Yesterday it was another free fall at BSE and NSE. That reminded what happened on 22nd Jan. Since then there is no new trend other than downfall. Even though there are many stocks that are trading above there bottom in jan, the confidence in stock exchange is eroding among investors or traders.
There are many factors that is affecting Indian stock market mainly :

"Rupee apriciation against Dollar": Rupee has been apriciating against Dollar since last 6 months, this has put Indian exporter and software company in dizzy. There profit margins are getting thinner and thinner. Combined with US recession woos and lesser profitability, indian software companies are in a panic situation and even most stable companies have started firing employees in recent months. As a result many software companies are way below their high : Infosys is trading near 14k from 23k, Tech Mahindra trading bedow 700 from 18K, TCS from 12k to sub 600. There is no end to this list.

"US recession woos" : This is causing havoc in stock market all over the world. Almost every economy is dependent on US market conditions and Indian economy is tightly linked than any other. Recent fee-fall in market is a vindication to the fact that "Indian market is dependent on US economy". The banking/Insurence sector in US is showing worst results in near future. That has resulted in NASDAQ and DOW fall. US Dollar is trading at its lowest against Euro and it is a confirmation to the US recession start.

"Election round the corner" : Indian parliamentary election is due in 2009 and hence government is in concession mode. In 2008 budget FM has announced 60,000 crores to small farmer and still there are noises getting louder to extend it to bigger mass. This is causing Banks to slip in red, as FM has not announced any concreet measures to balance Banks loss. No concession has been given to software industries which could have helped in heeling.

"Oil is trading above 100$/barrel" : Oil price is soring to record highs and surely is is putting lots of burden on indian oil company. Government dont want to take the risk of raising the fuel price again after recent hike and another failed attempt to put a brave face.

Under these circumtances market has no othere way but to go downward. These issues doesn't seems to be sorted out in near future. This time recovery will take a long and tiring path .


मधुर संगीत

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